As everyone knows it is impossible to predict the currency markets. But we can have a look at some top City analysts’ predictions.
For GBP/EUR the majority anticipate a range of 1.10-1.15 in 6 months time and 1.15-1.20 in 12 months. For GBP/USD a range of 1.35-1.40 in 6 months but down slightly to 1.25-1.30 in 12 months.
The top 3 factors cited to affect global exchange rates in 2018 are US interest rate rises, the reduction of European Central bank stimulus policies and changes in US economic policies arising from the Trump administration. Closer to home, Brexit progress will of course have a big impact on the pound.
During 2017 the pound gained most against the Turkish lira (+20%) and the New Zealand dollar (+11%) and US dollar (+9.6%). The pound fared worst against the Czech koruna (-7.6%), Polish zloty (-7%) and the euro (-2.4%).
In terms of actually buying currency your new year resolution should be to shop around. At The Currency Exchange we are often intrigued that some clients don’t regard a few hundred pounds as a ‘decent’ saving.
On a recent transaction of £58,000 our exchange rate saved the client over £200 compared to a leading currency broker and our rate was over £1000 better than a leading high street bank. If we advertised ‘free money’ I’m sure they would view it differently!
Exchange rates at time of writing (Midday Friday 5th Jan) GBP/EUR 1.123 GBP/USD 1.354 EUR/USD 1.205